Multilinear Events Sequencing technology implemented in these Guides makes possible a comprehensive proven investigation system for the examination of any kind of phenomenon. It is best mastered through use. Its true power and value can only be observed through its use. The Guides provide practical instruction in its use during investigations, and for other purposes.

Most of these 10 MES INVESTIGATION TASK GUIDES are based on the Multilinear Events Sequencing (MES) Technology. That technology is based on the systematic acquisition, ordering and linking of data about events that occur during specific phenomena. This Edition updates earlier guides to incorporate the latest thinking and experiences with implementation of MES technology in all types of investigations, and the introduction of Investigation Catalyst software to support its learning and use. Updates include

First a word about the foundation on which MES investigations, or the framework within which it occurs. The foundation consists of the underlying concepts and principles on which the MES technology is built.

Every investigation is a process. All investigations involve many common tasks, each task requiring specialized investigation knowledge, skills and methods. Those common tasks, and the knowledge, skills and methods required to perform them, are addressed in these Task Guides. Investigators need to produce valid new information on which individuals and organizations can act to achieve better performance. The procedures are applicable to any kind and level of investigation and analysis seeking better performance.

Occurrences or System Operations to be investigated are also viewed as processes, consisting of people and objects interacting with each other to produce outcomes. Investigations are undertaken to gain an understanding of occurrences or operations by understanding the dynamic interactions that produced the outcomes - how what you see came to be. Once understood, underlying processes can be analyzed, predicted and managed in the future to produce more desirable outcomes more efficiently, more consistently and with less risk.

To gain understanding, investigators must determine what happened and why it happened during the process, or how it works. The methodology they use must provide for consistency and discipline in the documentation of what happened. It must be research definingto help investigators determine what is known, and point investigators toward the data they still need to acquire. It must provide for the timely organization and progressive analysis of new data to show relationships among events as data is acquired. It must show the logical flow of the events to explain why the process progresses. Then it must facilitate problem discovery by offering an orderly way to examine all interactions during the process. It must lead to the ready, clear communication of the process interactions to encourage their use in the greatest variety of ways. These guides help investigators develop, quickly, efficiently and consistently a valid documented description and explanation of what happened or how it works.

The descriptions produced should meet certain minimum criteria. For example, they must be valid representations of what happened. They should be problem defining by enabling the orderly identification and definition of problem interactions from episodic occurrences. They should facilitate the analysis and evaluation of options for changes that might be expected to achieve better process outcomes. They should minimize subjective opinions to reduce potential controversy about the contents.

Developing proposals to make changes is a different type of "investigation" than determining what happened. Problem discovery and definition require understanding and definition of expected interactions, and identification of improvement actions focuses on prediction of future occurrences. Problem discovery and definition builds on valid knowledge of what happened, but also requires process and predictive analytical knowledge, skills and methods. The Guides describe how the two investigations task areas overlap and support each other. The additional knowledge, skills and methods required to meet both challenges are also addressed.

Invalid, incomplete or inconsistent descriptions lead to many unnecessary problems: such as misdirected analyses and actions; waste; conflicts; flawed research and others. Therefore, these Guides include Quality Assurance guidance and procedures for both investigation work products, and for the investigations themselves, to help achieve highly valued work products.

MES System Overview

• principles and procedures for documenting data acquired during investigations in a timely, consistent, complete and disciplining way.
  
• principles and procedures for organizing sequentially and documenting all data acquired during an investigation in real time,
  
• timely direction to guide the acquisition of additional data as the investigation progresses.
  
• procedures to filter the actions needed to produce the outcome from those that did not contribute.
  
• quality assurance procedures for the investigation process and work products.
  

SEQUENTIAL LOGIC - the reasoning process applied to data to organize it into the proper sequence in which actions by people or objects occurred. For example, the investigator must reason whether A happened before B, or B before A by determining the relative timing and spatial logic of the events.

IF-THEN or CAUSE-EFFECT LOGIC - the reasoning process applied, after actions or behaviors have been ordered sequentially, to determine if they are influenced what followed, and to test relevance of new data. If-then or coupled relationships are represented by linking arrows, to show the flow of the interactions. For example, if A occurred during a process, then does it follow that B would occur? If so draw a tentative link from A to B. Some times A led to several other actions (A1, A2 and A3). If so, show this by drawing tentative links ffrom action A to resultant B1, B2, B3 etc. Sometimes several actions (A1, A2 and A3) all led to B draw links from each to B. If you think there may be a relationship but need more data, display a tentative arrow with a ? on it between these actions. The reverse of this reasoning may be applied backwards, from a resultant action to the action(s) that might have proceeded it.

DEDUCTIVE LOGIC - the reasoning process applied to objects to 1) infer events that must have occurred to produce states of objects observed during investigations, and 2) fill gaps in an investigator's understanding of what happened with hypothetical candidate scenarios. By applying natural laws and scientific principles to infer possible specific actions of people or objects that produced the observed state, or to bridge gaps in causal flows between known action, an investigator can pinpoint data which should be sought to verify each assumed scenario. Deductive reasoning may also be used to discover unknowns. Deductive reasoning can utilize reasoning aids such as Investigation Catalyst software, or various kinds of logic trees.

NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT LOGIC- the reasoning process applied to linked actions, to determine what and only what had to occur to produce a subsequent action or outcome, and to test the completeness of a process description. Must A always occur before B occurs? If so, it remains part of the linked set. Next, determine sufficiency by determining if B will always occur if A and only if A occurs? If so, the investigator has a complete couple relationship. If not, what other actions must occur to produce B with reasonable certainty? N/S logic helps investigators find and define unknown unknowns, or unk-unks.that may not be discovered by other reasoning processes.

Another way to illustrate this reasoning is to use if-them reasoning. "If A occurred, then B had to occurr" describes a complete cause-effect coupling of two actions. "If A, then maybe B" but you need more As (A1, A2. . . ) to produce B, you have to keep adding more A's until all the "If A1 and A2 and A3 then B" describe the EBs it takes to make B happen every time the A's occur.

At the conclusion of necessary and sufficient logic testing, investigators will know what they know and don't know about the occurrence. With that knowledge, they are prepared to report all uncertainties, with an explanation why they could not be resolved.

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